Dec 12, 2022
Joe Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and was formerly a senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Joe is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to take a look back on the past few years and to discuss his new paper on excess unemployment over the past 25 years. Specifically, David and Joe also discuss the movement of the natural rate of unemployment over time, alternative explanations for the flattening of the Phillips curve, policy implications for the Fed moving forward, and more.
Transcript for the episode can be found here.
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*25 Years of Excess Unemployment in Advanced Economies: Lessons for Monetary Policy* by Joseph Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev
*Economists are Slightly Better at Predicting Inflation Than Consumers* by Joseph Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev
*Who are the Better Forecasters of Inflation, Bond Traders or Economists?* by Joseph Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev
*The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence form U.S. States* by Jonathon Hazell, Juan Herreno, Emi Nakamura, and Jon Steinsson
*The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation* by George Akerlof, William Dickens, and George Perry
*Measuring Monetary Policy: the NGDP Gap* by David Beckworth